Trade Summary for July 24, 2024

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 4:50 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQN24
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 9:30 Open Short
  • Daily Bearish Trend Shift
  • Daily DOL Lower
  • Gap Below VWAP Lowerband
  • H12 Bearish Trend Shift
  • Playbook
  • PML Short
  • Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap
  • Sell Stop Order
  • Trade Of The Day
  • VWAP Lowerband Down Trend
  • Weekly DOL Lower

Notes:

• 10:05 AM:

  • Premarket Analysis:

    • Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
    • Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.

  • Trade Execution:

    • Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
    • Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
    • Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.

• 10:40 AM:

  • The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
  • The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
  • Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.

• 12:30 PM:

  • Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
  • Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
  • Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
  • The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.

• Wrong:

  • Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.

Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.

Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.

10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt. 

The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves. 

Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.

Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias. 

And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this. 

So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for. 

I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade. 

My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume. 

10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price. 

12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark